Big flops and breakout hits are equally rare on TV this fall

By Gary Levin, USA TODAY
Five weeks into the new TV season, it's clear that few new shows are tanking in the ratings. But breakout hits are elusive, too. The top new show is CBS' NCIS: Los Angeles. The spinoff follows the original NCIS, which has eclipsed CSI to become TV's No. 1 drama.

L.A. and The Good Wife, also on CBS, Fox's Cleveland Show and Glee, and ABC's FlashForward, Modern Family, Cougar Town and The Middle are doing well enough to earn full seasons. (Cleveland has already been renewed for next season.) CW's The Vampire Diaries also is expected to keep going.

That's not to say TV doesn't have its clunkers; far more series fail than succeed. ABC's Hank and Eastwick, NBC's Trauma, CBS' Three Rivers and Fox's Brothers and Dollhouse aren't likely to survive once initial 13-episode runs wrap up in January. But none seem in danger of imminent cancellation, a contrast to past years when itchy trigger fingers led networks to yank shows ahead of the November ratings sweeps period, which begins Oct. 29. Only one new show has been canceled outright — CW's The Beautiful Life, which lasted just two episodes — as fewer shows than usual have completely tanked.

New shows typically get 13-episode test runs; if successful, they get the go-ahead by November for nine more, enough to last through May.

Also safe for now: NBC's Jay Leno Show. The network says it's meeting expectations, even as some affiliates complain about the effect of the low ratings on their local newscasts.

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Delayed viewing boosts numbers for network series

By Gary Levin, USA TODAY

Viewers with DVRs are catching up with series in record numbers, brightening the picture for TV networks by easing yearly declines.

In new Nielsen data for the season's premiere week, many shows scored substantial gains from viewing delayed one to seven days after they aired.

The lift, bigger than ever, blunts early fears several top returning series had plummeted. Grey's Anatomy added 3 million viewers, climbing 17% from its initial total, and two others — CBS' The Mentalist and Fox's House —added nearly as many. In all, 36 shows added 1 million or more viewers, and ratings for 14 programs shot up 20% or more.

And it shows how DVRs — now in one in three homes, up from 27% last fall — not only shift viewing but also increase it; owners watch far more TV than those without. Yet because viewers can skip commercials, networks can't charge advertisers for many of those extra viewers. (Ad buyers do pay for commercial viewing up to three days later.)

Popular programs in competitive time slots continue to be the most heavily recorded. Grey's, CSI, The Office and Fringe, all airing at 9 ET/PT Thursday, are among the biggest gainers. ABC's FlashForward was the most heavily recorded new-series premiere, adding 2 million late viewers (16%); NCIS: LA gained 1.8 million (10%).

On a percentage basis, Fox's low-rated sci-fi Dollhouse was top gainer. It added 37%, which translated to just 914,000 extra viewers. Fringe, up 34%, was next, followed by four CW series up 30% or more. NBC's Heroes got a 27% lift but still ranked below last year's opener.

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