Big flops and breakout hits are equally rare on TV this fall

By Gary Levin, USA TODAY
Five weeks into the new TV season, it's clear that few new shows are tanking in the ratings. But breakout hits are elusive, too. The top new show is CBS' NCIS: Los Angeles. The spinoff follows the original NCIS, which has eclipsed CSI to become TV's No. 1 drama.

L.A. and The Good Wife, also on CBS, Fox's Cleveland Show and Glee, and ABC's FlashForward, Modern Family, Cougar Town and The Middle are doing well enough to earn full seasons. (Cleveland has already been renewed for next season.) CW's The Vampire Diaries also is expected to keep going.

That's not to say TV doesn't have its clunkers; far more series fail than succeed. ABC's Hank and Eastwick, NBC's Trauma, CBS' Three Rivers and Fox's Brothers and Dollhouse aren't likely to survive once initial 13-episode runs wrap up in January. But none seem in danger of imminent cancellation, a contrast to past years when itchy trigger fingers led networks to yank shows ahead of the November ratings sweeps period, which begins Oct. 29. Only one new show has been canceled outright — CW's The Beautiful Life, which lasted just two episodes — as fewer shows than usual have completely tanked.

New shows typically get 13-episode test runs; if successful, they get the go-ahead by November for nine more, enough to last through May.

Also safe for now: NBC's Jay Leno Show. The network says it's meeting expectations, even as some affiliates complain about the effect of the low ratings on their local newscasts.

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